J.M. Barry, (2009) writing in Nature [459: 324-5] on Pandemics: Avoiding The Mistakes of 1918 lists as a major mistake by the government in addressing the 1918 pandemic was the communication strategy of reassurance. J.M. Barry points out that in 1918 “This communication strategy of either reassurance or silence had its effect. Its effect was terror.”
What the government won’t tell you is that the current pandemic should be more than a cause for concern. In a Special Report of the journal in September, 2009: Pandemic flu: from the front lines, global preparedness is limited with not enough antivirals and the current number of cases are overwhelming public health services resulting in a breakdown in public health diagnoses and laboratory services. Additionally, wealthier nations are buying up the initial stocks of vaccine creating an access inequity to drugs and vaccines by poorer countries.
In the United States, the health care system is stretched and does not have ability to meet a surge in cases should that happen. The worry at present is that the system cannot handle this pandemic even if moderate. Supplies such as the N95 respirators are limited. The workplace is not prepared should the number of cases substantially affect its’ workforce. Even if some of the work can be handled at home, the internet and current computer equipment are not prepared for a dramatic increase in volume. The flow of essential generic medicine to the United States may be severely impacted since most are produced offshore in China and India.
In the case of India, with its’ young workforce (50% of Indians are under 25), a moderate form of the influenza would have devastating effects. Out of the 1.1 billion population, India has only enough Tamiflu for 3 million.
Add to this, Dr. Michael Osterholm, Director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy in Minneapolis worries that “…given current existing public concerns about vaccines in the autumn we might see mounting public responses and concerns about pandemic vaccine safety, and people refusing to be vaccinate.” He closes by stating “Expect the unexpected over the next six months.”
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